“Arbitrary”, “political marketing”, “no real answer”: Experts slam new 30% industry target floated by EU states
In Brussels today, the attachés of the EU member states are discussing a newly proposed industrial target under the Industrial Accelerator Act: this stipulates that the value of the Union’s manufacturing sector is to rise by 30 per cent by 2035. Industry experts from three different think tanks and research institutions consider this approach to be completely misguided – and are speaking out in no uncertain terms.
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Snapshot
- RED IV: Commission outlines the future direction of the EU’s renewable energy policy
- TEN-E: MEPs want 30 per cent of all congestion rents to be allocated to new interconnectors
- COP31: EU member states want climate conference to focus on transitioning away from fossil fuels
- China: Clean power met all demand growth in 2025
- PV: Growth in solar energy is levelling off across the EU
But first ...
“Arbitrary”, “political marketing”, “no real answer”: Experts slam new 30% industry target floated by EU states
On Wednesday and Thursday (9 September and 10 September), representatives from EU Member States will meet in Brussels to discuss a key piece of legislation in EU industrial policy: the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA). Through this legislation, the European Commission aims to introduce EU-wide requirements for public procurement and renewable energy tenders, thereby ensuring demand for clean technologies and industrial products manufactured in Europe using low-carbon processes.
On some points, however, the EU Member States have different views to the leadership in Brussels, as shown by the latest draft compromise from the Irish EU Council Presidency – the document was obtained by The Kelvin Report. For example, in the IAA, the Commission had proposed a target whereby the EU’s industrial manufacturing capacity should account for at least 20 per cent of the EU’s economic output by 2035.
The EU Member States, on the other hand, appear to want to set a different industrial target, as shown by the draft compromise of 2 September: by 2035, the value of the Union’s manufacturing sector is set to rise by 30 per cent.
A survey by The Kelvin Report shows that industry experts from the Jacques Delors Centre, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) do not consider this emerging demand from EU member states to be effective.
When asked for comment, industry expert Philipp Jäger from the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin was particularly critical: “It is window-dressing and political marketing to suggest that the measures contained in the Industrial Accelerator Act could make a substantial contribution to strengthening the entire manufacturing sector in this way,” said Jäger in an assessment for The Kelvin Report.
According to the expert, the IAA is indeed a potentially important instrument of industrial policy, but only for selected sectors, including cleantech, electromobility and certain energy-intensive products. And even the European Commission’s proposal falls short, according to Jäger – he cites as an example the five per cent cement quota for public buildings, which stipulates that the cement must be of EU origin and produced using low-carbon methods.
“As public procurement accounts for only a small proportion of total cement consumption, not even 2 per cent of cement would need to meet the requirements – that is far too little to provide any incentive for investment,” he criticised. According to Jäger, the situation is similar for most other technologies, such as solar power, wind power and batteries. “So adjustments still need to be made here: quotas must be raised, and the scope for exemptions reduced,” the expert believes.
Similar criticism of the EU Council’s latest draft compromise has been voiced in Paris. “Neither the Commission’s original target nor the Council’s proposed alternative really answer the question that matters most: growth towards what?”, explained industry experts Elena Schneider and Ciarán Humphreys from the Paris-based Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE) in a joint assessment for The Kelvin Report. According to the experts, both proposed targets would measure the scale of industry, but not the direction of growth.
“Whatever growth target is ultimately chosen, the Council should be pushing for a clear sense of direction – a rigorous, evidence-based understanding of which sectors Europe actually needs to scale, grow or protect, and where Europe's strengths and vulnerabilities really lie.”
Schneider and Humphreys assume that the choice of sectors has already been made in the legislative process for the Industrial Accelerator Act. “But that analytical work remains central going forward, because it is what should determine which sectors receive which forms of support – local content requirements, higher procurement quotas, adapted cost waivers, and so on,” the experts point out.
According to the I4CE researchers, the procurement quotas for cleantech manufactured in Europe, such as battery storage systems, or for industrial products such as steel or cement, are too low: “The Industrial Accelerator Act’s current procurement quotas amount to a tiny fraction of actual EU demand, far below the capacity already coming online, and static quotas risk leaving that committed supply stranded.”
In their view, the EU must combine public procurement with measures to boost private demand and robust definitions of ‘low-carbon’ to avoid a patchwork of approaches across Member States.
Finn Ole Semrau, Deputy Research Head of the Industrial Policy Lab at the German Kiel Institute for the World Economy, is also sceptical about the industrial target proposed by the EU Member States. “The 30 per cent target remains, ultimately, arbitrary and is of limited significance as a measure of success for industrial policy,” said Semrau in response to a query from The Kelvin Report. “Furthermore, services are playing an increasingly important role even within the manufacturing sector.”
In the researcher’s view, it is not so much the aggregate size of the industry that matters, but rather whether Europe becomes more productive and innovative, reduces critical dependencies and successfully scales up new technologies.
Semrau believes that the Council should spend less time discussing higher procurement targets or stricter exclusions of third countries, and instead focus more on the specific problem that a particular instrument is intended to address. “Decarbonisation, resilience and competitiveness are different objectives and require different instruments,” said the industrial researcher.
“At the same time, the Industrial Accelerator Act must not distract from the fact that Europe’s competitiveness depends largely on better business conditions. Faster planning permissions, efficient infrastructure and networks, and competitive energy prices are crucial to Europe’s future viability as an industrial location,” said the industry expert.
The final form of the Industrial Accelerator Act will also depend on the European Parliament’s negotiating position – the three MEPs responsible are due to publish the draft report today, Wednesday (9 September). However, as early as Tuesday, the co-lead negotiator and MEP Anna Cavazzini (Greens/Germany) gave a glimpse of the content in a German-language blog post.
“The draft report ensures that, for all products covered, the ‘Made with EU’ requirements are accompanied by low-carbon production”, it states. In its legislative proposal, the European Commission had opted not to include an EU quota for steel. Furthermore, according to the MEP, the draft report calls for higher EU and low-carbon quotas for heavy industry products, as well as for a larger share of energy auctions to meet the requirement that strategic components must be manufactured in the EU.
“It also creates a lead market for recycled materials from the EU, including recycled plastics,” writes Cavazzini. She adds that a vehicle’s battery must be manufactured in the EU to meet the requirements – “unlike the Commission’s proposal, which relies on either a European battery or 70 per cent European components.”
Brussels outlines the future direction of the EU’s renewable energy policy
The European Commission has explored possible ways of further developing the EU’s renewable energy policy, according to an internal document. A draft impact assessment for a forthcoming reform of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED IV), to which The Kelvin Report had access, analyses the relevant measures.
Brussels officials have thus listed more than 20 preferred measures in a “policy package”, including increased financial support for renewable energy through the “Renewable Energy Financing Mechanism”, new rules for the “smart charging” of electric vehicles, and an EU indicative renewable hydrogen consumption target for industries and refineries, whilst at the same time removing binding national RFNBO targets.
The 70-page document also lists, among the “preferred measures”, the option of defining curtailment and measuring it across the EU to improve the integration of renewables, or extending power purchase agreements for renewables to include “flexibility purchase agreements”. snr
MEPs want 30 per cent of all congestion rents to be allocated to new interconnectors
MEPs apparently want electricity transmission system operators (TSOs) to set aside 30 per cent of their congestion rents in future for the construction of new interconnectors and other electricity grid projects, according to a draft compromise obtained by The Kelvin Report. MEPs are set to vote on the draft report this coming Thursday (10 September) in the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) in Brussels.
With such a demand, MEPs would be going beyond the European Commission’s objective: in its legislative proposal for the expansion of cross-border energy infrastructure, the Commission had suggested that TSOs should set aside 25 per cent of congestion rents for new interconnectors.
The situation is quite different for the EU Member States: in a draft compromise from early June, they had proposed a figure of 10 per cent from 2027 onwards. The proportion of unutilised congestion rents to be set aside is to rise by five percentage points annually until 2030 – reaching 25 per cent in 2030.
According to MEPs, the Commission should also, in future, draw up a series of energy scenarios to serve as a basis for planning the European electricity, gas, hydrogen and CO₂ networks. There should be an ‘initial scenario’ that is consistent with the EU’s energy and climate targets, including the goal of climate neutrality by 2050.
Furthermore, Brussels is to draw up an ‘alternative scenario’ based on the actual progress made by Member States in their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). In addition, so-called “sensitivity analyses” are to be carried out to examine the “robustness of infrastructure planning” under various assumptions.
Michael Bloss (Germany), MEP and energy policy spokesperson for the Greens in the European Parliament, urged a European approach in an interview with The Kelvin Report: “Planning the grids at European level rather than nationally saves half a trillion euros. An integrated European grid reduces energy costs – national parochialism drives them up.” snr
EU member states want COP31 to focus on phasing out fossil fuels
At the next UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey (COP31), the EU Member States intend to prioritise, above all, concrete progress towards a faster energy transition and the transition away from fossil fuels, as indicated by draft resolutions from the Council of the European Union obtained by The Kelvin Report.
According to the document, dated 3 September, COP31 is to prioritise “practical, implementation-focused outcomes, including accelerating the clean energy transition” and “the transition away from fossil fuels”. The attachés of the EU Member States in Brussels negotiated this joint position yesterday, Tuesday 8 September, within the Working Party on the Environment.
Given that the international community is likely to exceed the 1.5-degree limit on climate change, the EU Member States apparently intend to call on countries such as China, the US and India to step up their efforts – even though these countries are not explicitly named in the draft. The draft states: “The Council of the European Union urges all Parties, particularly major emitters, to act with the highest possible ambition to return to a 1.5°C-compatible trajectory and to minimise the magnitude and duration of the overshoot.”
The Turkish COP31 Presidency has recently set out its ten priorities for the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in a letter. The designated COP31 President, Murat Kurum, listed the first four priorities as “clean energy transition and electrification”, followed by zero waste and methane reduction, as well as climate-resilient cities and “green industrialisation”. Kurum cites a 35 per cent share of electricity in final energy consumption by 2035 as a new potential electrification target for the international community. snr
Clean power met China’s whole demand growth in 2025
Clean electricity generated by the expansion of wind and solar power has met China’s entire additional electricity demand in 2025. This is shown in a new report by the London-based non-profit think tank Ember. According to the statistics, for the first time in ten years, coal-fired power generation in China has also fallen slightly, by 0.7 per cent.
Furthermore, according to the Ember report, the People’s Republic accounted for around 60 per cent of new battery storage capacity worldwide in 2025 – and increased its installation rate by 84 per cent compared with the previous year. “It is also being used more intensively, with average utilisation roughly doubling between 2022 and 2025,” write the authors of the study, referring to storage systems. The technologies are also continuing to evolve: “Longer-duration storage options, particularly compressed-air and molten-salt storage, are moving from early demonstration towards commercial deployment,” the report states.
According to Ember, the electrification of China’s industry is also continuing apace: electricity accounts for three-quarters of final energy consumption in light industry, such as machinery, equipment and textiles. “Even the harder, energy-intensive sectors are now starting to move, with electricity’s share rising in industries such as metal smelting and processing and non-metallic minerals,” the researchers point out.
Clean technologies such as batteries, electric cars and electricity grid infrastructure have become a “new export driver” for China, the analysis points out: “Clean technology accounts for 6.6 per cent of China’s exports, up from 2.7 per cent in 2020.” The value of these exports has exceeded the US$220 billion mark, bringing them into the same league as traditional export sectors such as garments, furniture and household appliances. snr
Growth in solar energy is levelling off across the EU
The expansion of solar energy in the European Union is set to decline slightly in 2026, according to a new report by the industry association SolarPower Europe. Whilst EU-wide capacity additions stood at 69.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2025, the association’s scenario suggests that expansion in 2026 is likely to total just 68.1 GW – a 2.1 per cent decrease compared with the previous year. “Policy support continues to weaken in several Member States, regulatory uncertainty is increasing and grid constraints are becoming more pronounced,” says SolarPower Europe, explaining the market situation.
According to industry figures, Germany and Spain – the two largest EU markets – recorded the highest installation levels in the first half of 2026. However, statistics show that France, Italy and Poland, as well as Romania and Greece, posted year-on-year growth. “By contrast, several markets, including the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Hungary, performed below 2025 levels.” snr
Coming up: What's next in energy, industry and climate
- 09 September 2026: European Commission / Industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné plans to propose a Public Procurement Act and a European Innovation Act
- 10 September 2026, 16.00 – 17.30: European Commission (DG Clima) is hosting EU CRCF Buyers Club Webinar
- 10 September 2026: ITRE will vote on a draft report on the TEN-E Regulation
- 10 September 2026, 10.00 – 11.30: Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will speak on the ETS 1 review in a meeting of ENVI
- 10 September 2026: MEPs will vote on a reform of the Market Stability Reserve in the ETS 1
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